SSC

SSC

Thursday, October 26, 2017

The Idlib Operation

The Idlib Operation

u Turkey has begun the Idlib Operation in order to eliminate the possibility of the emergence of another human tragedy, and to avoid the loss of many lives.

u Turkey and Russia reached an agreement to implement de-escalation zones in the Idlib Province of Syria on the 6th Astana Conferance.

u Turkey entered Idlib as the guarantor of the Opposition Groups and realize the plan under the status of an observer.

u By the way, the people of Idlib are extremely worried about the possibility that Idlib may be turned into a second Aleppo.

u  In Aleppo, the opposition groups fought against the regime, and Russian and Iranian forces during which period the city was devastated and many opposition fighters had to leave the city with their families.

u It is acknowledged that the people of Idlib would welcome the Turkish operation in order not to encounter another scenario like that which occurred in Aleppo.

u Turkey has initiated the Idlib Operation in order to prevent such a  scenario.

u Another aim is the disposal of any opportunities brought about by the probable high human mobility and power vacuum in the area which terror groups, such as the PKK, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,could use to their advantage.

u  On the other hand, It is still not clear whether the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) will engage in confrontation with Turkey and to what degree. This is one of the Operation’s greatest risks. In order to provoke such a confrontation, the radical elements within HTS and the PKK elements, all of them may create provocations.

u Idlib has surrounded with the revolutionary forces from the start of the Syrian uprising. Idlib was cleaned of the regime forces in a short time.
u A wide scale Idlib offensive was undertaken several groups such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Ahrar al-Sham, and al-Nusra Front; in the aftermath, a cosmopolitan civilian-military structure was established.
u Especially, after the fall of Aleppo, many refugees have flocked to the city and the population has reached over one million.
u  Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by the al-Nusra Front, has taken control of many locations in the province and after many encounters, specifically with the Ahrar, it has increased its grip in the region. 
u  As of the moment, the HTS has control of the majority of the region’s main cities. However, a number of other locations are controlled by other groups who have not joined the HTS and even fought against it such as Ahrar al-ShamFaylaq al-ShamJays al-Izza and Jays al-Idlib, and Nour al-Din al-Zenki  who have broken off from the HTS.
u During the last few months, the HTS declared its opposition to the response by Turkey and it is expected that other splits will take place within the HTS. 

u  In addition, It is probable that confrontation with al-Nusra, which forms the core of the HTS will take place. Also after recent splits the HTS is mostly al-Nusra.

u The Nusra Front is one of the most capable fighting groups within the opposition; it harbors many militants. They have obtained many weapons in the black market.

u Also, They are effective in the use of suicide bombers and vehicle-bombs.

u Lastly , in the previous days, Turkey’s military has set up its first observation post in Idlib to monitor ceasefire as part of de-escalation zones under Astana process.


Prepared by: İsmet Sabuncu, Suay Özeroğlu