The Idlib
Operation
u Turkey
has begun
the Idlib Operation in order to eliminate the possibility of the emergence of
another human tragedy, and to avoid the loss of many lives.
u Turkey
and Russia reached an agreement to implement de-escalation zones in the Idlib
Province of Syria on the
6th Astana Conferance.
u Turkey
entered Idlib
as the guarantor of the Opposition Groups and realize the plan under the status of an
observer.
u By the way, the people of
Idlib are extremely worried
about the possibility
that Idlib may be turned into a second Aleppo.
u In Aleppo, the opposition groups fought
against the regime, and Russian and Iranian forces during which period the city
was devastated and many opposition fighters had to leave the city with their
families.
u It
is acknowledged that the people of Idlib would welcome the Turkish operation in
order not to encounter another scenario like that which occurred in Aleppo.
u Turkey
has initiated the Idlib Operation in order to prevent such a
scenario.
u Another aim is the
disposal of any opportunities brought about by the probable high human
mobility and power vacuum in the area which terror groups, such as the PKK, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,could
use to their advantage.
u On the other hand, It is still not clear
whether the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) will engage in
confrontation with Turkey and to what degree. This is one of the Operation’s
greatest risks. In order to provoke such a confrontation, the radical elements
within HTS and the PKK elements, all of them may create provocations.
u Idlib has surrounded with
the revolutionary forces from the start of the Syrian uprising. Idlib was
cleaned of the regime forces in a short time.
u A
wide scale Idlib offensive was undertaken several groups such as the Free Syrian Army
(FSA), Ahrar al-Sham, and al-Nusra Front; in the
aftermath, a cosmopolitan civilian-military structure was established.
u Especially, after the
fall of Aleppo, many refugees have flocked to the city and the population has
reached over one million.
u Hay’at
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by the al-Nusra Front,
has taken control of many locations in the province and after many encounters,
specifically with the Ahrar, it has increased its grip in the
region.
u As of the moment, the HTS has control
of the majority of the region’s main cities. However, a number of other
locations are controlled by other groups who have not joined the HTS and even fought
against it such as Ahrar al-Sham, Faylaq al-Sham, Jays
al-Izza and Jays al-Idlib, and Nour al-Din
al-Zenki who have broken off from the HTS.
u During
the last few months, the HTS declared its opposition to the response by Turkey
and it is expected that other splits will take place within the HTS.
u In addition, It
is probable that confrontation with al-Nusra, which forms the core
of the HTS will
take place. Also after
recent splits the HTS is mostly al-Nusra.
u The Nusra Front
is one of the most capable fighting groups within the opposition; it harbors
many militants. They
have obtained many weapons in the black market.
u Also, They are effective in the use
of suicide bombers and vehicle-bombs.
u Lastly , in the previous days,
Turkey’s military has set up its first observation post in Idlib to monitor
ceasefire as part of de-escalation zones under Astana process.
Prepared by: İsmet Sabuncu, Suay Özeroğlu
